As you are likely aware, some time in May this year, the Bitcoin network will experience its third halving event. The increased awareness of Bitcoin since the last halving event in 2016, has meant a flood of predictions this time around.
5,333% Bitcoin ROI Between Halvings
As pointed out in a tweet by CryptoBull, the return on investment (ROI) for Bitcoin between the first (11/2012) and second (9/2016) halvings was an impressive 5,333%.
Bitcoin ROI from 1st halving to 2nd halving: 5,333%.
We are currently up 1,338% since the 2nd halving.
5,333% from 2nd to 3rd halving gets us to $34,838.
Less than 4 months to go.
$33k by July secured.
— Crypto₿ull (@CryptoBull) January 15, 2020
We must ignore the period between the genesis block and the first halving, because with zero initial value, the ROI would technically be infinite.
Anyway, applying a 5,333% ROI between the second and the upcoming halving would give us a target bitcoin price of $34,838.
Has Bitcoin Left It Too Late?
According to CryptoBull, we are currently up 1,338% since the last halving. Although based on the price at that time of $650.63, that should give us a current price of around $9350.
Unfortunately we aren’t quite there yet, but based on a current bitcoin price of around $8670, we get a current ROI of 1,233%. So can we make it 5,333% before the halving? [actually my calculations give us 5,185% and a target price of $34.4k, but who’s counting?] Is it possible to gain an extra 4,000-ish% ROI in the next four months?
Well, if we pretend for simplicity’s sake that our target is $34,680, this is exactly four times the current $8670 price, which represents a 300% increase.
We saw a 200% increase in 4 months just last year, fwhen bitcoin price went from $4k to $12k. So it certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility to hit $34,400 by the halving.
That Wasn’t Exactly The Prediction
But CryptoBull’s prediction wasn’t for $34.4k by the halving. It was for “$33k by July secured.”
And of course, there have been more explosive growth spurts in bitcoin price. For example, we saw a 400% increase in just 3 months in 2017. Between the end of September and the end of December, price went from $4k to $20k.
The difference being that this growth occurred in the rally following the 2016 halving. Generally the bigger rallies do tend to follow halvings, with smaller ‘accumulation’ rallies preceding them.
Whether we see a continuation of 2020’s gains so far in the run up to May’s halving event, and hit $34.4k before then is really not important.
It is traditionally the rally which occurs after the halving which causes the serious growth. Although some argue that this is already priced at this time.
$33k by July? I wouldn’t bet against it.
Where do you think Bitcoin’s price is heading over the next few months? Add your thoughts below!
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